Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards

Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred.

To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increas...

An early warning on early warning systems!

Increasing the effectiveness of Early Warning

The effective implementation of early warning is one of the best investments for disaster prevention and mitigation. In the last decade, we have witnessed strong efforts and progress towards better risk detection, monitoring and prediction. However, the best warnings are ineffective if they cannot be distributed in a timely way and targeted to people at risk. With the evolvement of new Informat...

Quantifying limits to detection of early warning for critical transitions.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such...

WG Early Warning Systems

Early Warning Systems aim at detecting unclassified but potentially harmful system behavior based on preliminary indications and are complementary to Intrusion Detection Systems. Both kinds of systems try to detect, identify and react before possible damage occurs and contribute to an integrated and aggregated situation report (big picture). A particular emphasis of Early Warning Systems is to ...